The Path to History: Inside Look at the Boston City Council At-Large Race

The Boston City Council At - Large elections have a history of being a flash point in the city’s politics for the past two decades, and 2021 is no different. The At - Large race has been an important gateway to power for women of color since 2009, when now Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley smashed the Council’s 100-year glass ceiling by becoming the first woman of color to serve in the body’s history. The years that followed ushered in a succession of three women of color to serve as Boston City Council President: Michelle Wu, Andrea Campbell, and now Acting Mayor Kim Janey - all of whom are Mayoral candidates, with Annisa Essabi George and Julie Mejiia respectively joining the council in 2015 and 2019. The dynamics of the At-Large race typically reflect greater changes in the power structure of the city, and the region at-large, providing a blueprint for what could be possible in the decades to come.

While all eyes are currently on the historic 4 person mayoral race, the truth is that the Boston City Council At-Large fight is just as important to the city’s future as the next mayor. The Commonwealth’s capital is still a Strong-Mayor form of government, but the women of color currently vying for the top job, and their sisters in service who remain, have shifted the cultural and power dynamic of the council so that no Mayor will get the opportunity to succeed without them.  Remember when folks used to say the Council had no power?

The current field for the two open At-Large City Council races is composed of over a dozen candidates.  Based on fundraising, expenditures, and endorsements RC has identified five viable candidates:  Alex Gray, Erin Murphy, Kelly Bates, Ruthzeee Loujieune, and Dave Halbert.  It is our prediction that ultimately Dave Halbert and Ruthzee Loujieune will place 3rd and 4th respectively, however it will not be without a resourced fight from the other candidates in the field. 

Below is our At-Large City Council analysis of their fundraising data, burn rate, and how endorsements played into our electoral forecast for this year's preliminary election.

Boston's at-large candidates closed the first half of 2021 with almost a million dollars on hand between them, setting up a summer of spending across the field. It is notable that more than 4 candidates have raised over $100,000, with three of them surpassing $140,000 to date.  Examining data from the past six months can help reveal which candidates have built the war chests and infrastructure to take advantage of this critical final stretch.

Julia Mejia and Michael Flaherty entered 2021 with substantial cash reserves. Neither led the field in fundraising in any month until Michael Flaherty's breakout May and June totals. Councilor Mejia was also able to pick up some fundraising momentum in early Spring as well.  Relatively low spending through the first quarter allowed them to slowly build their war chests, and each is well-positioned going into the stretch run. While both Councilor Mejia and Councilor Flaherty have the nearly impenetrable protection of Massachusetts incumbency, they are also both exceptionally good at engaging with their respective communities through constituent service and programming. Barring any unforeseen circumstance or personal challenges, it is almost certain that we will see them on the City Council again next year. 

There are five challengers vying for the open At-Large seat that are poised to make serious bids throughout the summer. Alex Gray, Erin Murphy, Kelly Bates, Ruthzee Louijeune, and Dave Halbert have created a consistent fundraising program and have large enough cash reserves to maintain and escalate existing spending levels. While July, August, and September are pivotal months for voter contact and the field could still shift, as of today, we see these five challengers as favorites to join Councilors Mejia and Flaherty in the general election.

By one measure, May and June represented a possible division in this field, as Gray, Bates, and Murphy pivoted into high burn rates for the stretch run while Louijeune and Halbert continued stockpiling resources with burn rates below 50%. If these trends continue, Halbert and Louijeune will likely enter the fall general election campaign with the resources to make decisive investments and avoid distracting fundraising obligations, while Gray, Murphy, and Bates would be forced to continue raising to maintain operations. While Gray’s early fundraising was impressive, he has also struggled to maintain a pace that would allow him to ramp up spending in the critical months ahead.

Burn rate is just one metric of success, and it can also represent a strategic decision to invest in campaign staffing and infrastructure. Kelly Bates, for example, has posted the highest or second-highest spending totals in each of the past four months based on her heavy investment in staff hiring, causing her cash on hand to flatline over this period even as she continues to raise large monthly sums. Yet, Louijeune and Halbert have surpassed her reserves. Bates’ investment could prove decisive if it yields a strong field operation and additional donors down the road, but if not, Louijeune and Halbert could take the final two seats on the council with an October sprint while others continue to devote time to fundraising and lose time connecting with voters. 

Digging deeper into cycle-to-date donations (from January 1st, 2020 to July 20th, 2021) reveals a further indicator of Halbert’s strength and a potential source of power for his field operation. While Bates and Halbert run close to even in top-line fundraising, he has almost 50% more donors within the city of Boston this cycle, and more than three-quarters of these donors gave $100 or less. This gives Halbert a head start in assembling the base of volunteers who can power his campaign in the final stretch to the preliminary election in September and in the six-week sprint to the general election. 

Halbert and Louijeune each received an added boost to their field operations this week with endorsements from JP Progressives, who endorsed the two challengers along with incumbent Councilor Julia Mejia. While no one neighborhood group endorsement can decide an at-large City Council race in Boston, the endorsement from JP Progressives come with an army of loyal canvassers. Additionally, in their endorsement announcement the JP Progressives shared that they have consulted with allies at Right to the City Vote, making this a potential bellwether for how Boston’s progressive movement base will use their power this cycle.  Louijeune and Halbert each earned the support of the Massachusetts Nurses Association (as did Murphy) and Progressive West Roxbury. These organizational endorsements unlock a substantial pool of volunteers, and their strong financial situations and existing field infrastructure make Halbert and Louijeune poised to take advantage this summer and fall.

Mapping out their donors also shows the work that Halbert and Louijeune, and Bates to a lesser degree, have done to build robust citywide coalitions. The maps below are based on data from the Office of Campaign and Political Finance on contributions in 2020 and 2021, and were cleaned and geocoded by Rivera Consulting; a similar approach by Boston organizer Anthony Collins yielded key insights about the state of the Mayoral race, and Collins discusses his findings in a recent Twitter thread. Our analysis reveals that while Murphy has built a solid fundraising base within the city, her donors are overwhelmingly clustered in and around Neponset, with smaller clusters in Charlestown, South Boston, and West Roxbury. Without support from voters outside of these overwhelmingly white neighborhoods, she cannot build a winning citywide coalition.

Bates’s map is substantially more impressive, and shows that she has made inroads citywide. Halbert and Louijeune, however, have each drawn significant support in Allston, Charlestown, and East Boston (where Halbert lives), while Bates has not; these three neighborhoods are rarely base areas for citywide candidates, but they can provide the margin in a close citywide race and often prove to be battlegrounds for that reason. By replicating their citywide appeal with the voters in September and November, Louijeune and Halbert can secure the final two at-large seats.

Rounding out the field are candidates who have not yet built the financial infrastructure needed for a successful city-wide campaign. Many posted impressive individual months early in the spring, but their fundraising has tailed off in May and June and their cash on hand has flat-lined or declined amid growing expenses, and all six ended June below $40K. Still, each of the candidates in this tier has demonstrated fundraising upside and organizing ability during signature-gathering, and a strong summer could propel one or more of them into the runoff.

Regardless of who wins, as transformational consultants dedicated to long-term power-building for movement candidates and organizations in Boston, across Massachusetts, and nationally, we are excited about what this election means for the city. Remember to vote!