Path to History Part II: 2021 Boston Mayoral Preliminary Turnout Preview & Analysis
Rivera Consulting #Bospoli Desk Reference
There’s nothing like an election night in Boston politics, as poll-closers share results from across the city, campaigns and groups celebrate another cycle of organizing, and pundits argue about what each precinct means for the future of the city. But election results aren’t just about the campaign; a strong performance can demonstrate the trust that a candidate or a movement has built in specific communities in the city and the organizing work that communities have done to wield their own electoral power.
That’s why we’ve created the #Bospoli Desk Reference, a guide to Boston’s 255 precincts. As you learn the results in a precinct, you can use this interactive map to learn more about the voters living there. Just mouse over any precinct to get started.
Data sources:
Demographic data: U.S. Census block-level date (August 2021 release) aggregated to 2010-2020 precincts.
Election data (Presidential primary, Congressional primaries): PD43+, Office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth
Election data (Municipal): City of Boston Election Department
Rivera Consulting Analysis
Though only eight years ago, the political ecosystem of Boston has monumentally shifted since the last competitive multi-candidate mayoral preliminary in 2013. The race to replace longtime Mayor Tom Menino was seen as a historic turning point in the city’s politics at the time. Yet the true transformation was to come over Walsh’s tenure, with women of color leaders claiming power across government, resulting in historic 2018 and 2019 elections that saw up and coming leaders take the mantle of key elected positions throughout all levels of the city. Now in 2021, it is a near certainty this shift will culminate in the election of a full-termed woman of color to take over the corner office at city hall.
The historic eleven-person field in 2013 created clear stratified geographic power centers for the top contenders, with the top two candidates only garnering 18% and 17%. With only four truly viable candidates in 2021, the ability to build upon citywide coalitions while remaining competitive in clear battleground areas means slight variations in neighborhood-based turnout could prove decisive at the margins.
With the highest turnout of any recent city-wide preliminary election, the 2013 Mayoral preliminary saw the moderate and conservative power centers of South Boston, Charlestown, and West Roxbury flex their muscle, propelling both Walsh and John Connolly to victory. 2017 and 2018 saw younger and more progressive regions of the city—namely Allston-Brighton, Jamaica Plain, and Roslindale—improve on their 2013 share, powering progressive women of color such as District Attorney Rachael Rollins and State Representative Nika Elugardo to narrow victories.
The turnout share of black neighborhoods across the city has remained largely static across the city since 2013. Any variation within these communities and the white conservative region, be it up or down, will likely determine the fate of at least one ticket to the November general election. Both hold medium-to-low propensity voters that are able to radically shift the electorate at the margins. As a recent MassInc Polling Group survey shows, the potential differences between moderate, high, and highest turnout models will greatly impact any final result.
To better understand these potential dynamics, Rivera Consulting has broken the city’s key political regions into seven overarching geographic voting blocs. This is based on both the current demographics of the 22 voting wards across Boston, along with past voting trends in recent critical city-wide elections.
Candidates that have been unable to build upon diverse city-wide coalitions will rely on these subtle turnout differences in the communities that hold these critical low-propensity voters. While many often associate greater turnout with benefits for left-leaning candidates, it is moderate and conservative low-propensity voters that will likely tell the story early on election night.
The Political Regions of Boston (based on census and results in recent elections)
Black Communities (Green, Wards 12, 14, 17, and 18): Based on recent census data, at least half of voters in each of these four wards are Black, and these wards are the core of District 7, which is currently represented by Mayor Janey, and District 4, which is currently represented by Councilor Campbell. Higher turnout in Roxbury, Dorchester, and Mattapan in the prelim could help both Janey and Campbell.
White Moderates and Conservatives (Purple, Wards 2, 6, 7, and 20): The overwhelmingly white neighborhoods of South Boston, West Roxbury, and Charlestown form key bases for moderate and conservative candidates running city-wide in Boston, and their turnout could play a big role in a potential Essaibi George victory.
Students and Young Professionals (Yellow, Wards 19, 21, and 22): These precincts are whiter than the city as a whole, but lean more progressive in city elections and primaries, delivering large margins for Michelle Wu in her recent campaigns and for Ayanna Pressley in 2018.
East Boston (Light Green, Ward 1): As the only majority-Latino ward, East Boston’s Ward 1 promises to be a key battleground in the preliminary election. Michelle Wu notched a key endorsement here from Councilor Lydia Edwards, while the Arroyo family have been working to turn out Latino voters for Mayor Janey.
Diverse Dorchester Neighborhoods (Orange, Wards 13, 15, and 16): In a segregated city, these are three of the four wards where at least 10% of residents are Black, 10% are Latino, and 10% are Asian. This diversity has been reflected in election results; of their 31 total precincts in the 2019 at-large election for city council, Michael Flaherty won 8 and tied in 1, Annissa Essaibi George won 8, Michelle Wu won 7 and tied in 1, Erin Murphy won 5, and Julia Mejia won 2. Watch these neighborhoods as a sign of how voters who supported both Michelle Wu and Annissa Essaibi George in their council races are breaking; if Councilor Essaibi George hopes to reach the general election, she will likely need to win the majority of this bloc.
Downtown and Wealthy Enclaves (Magenta, Wards 3, 4, and 5): Boston’s three downtown wards have traditionally turned out at lower levels in municipal elections than other areas of the city, but Michelle Wu won the voters who showed up handily in 2019 — three quarters of ballots in each of these wards included a vote for her. With these margins, even a small jump in turnout here could play a big role in her results.
Corridors of Gentrification (Blue, Wards 8, 9, 10, and 11): Gentrification has hit communities in the South End, Mission Hill, and Jamaica Plain hard, forcing many Black residents out of these neighborhoods in recent decades. Housing costs will likely be top of mind for many voters across the city, but they may be most pressing in these neighborhoods, as the electorate includes both long-time residents at risk of displacement and new residents/gentrifiers who moved there in search of affordable neighborhoods; the preliminary will be an early test of which housing messages are resonating within this key voting bloc. Michelle Wu won all four of these wards in 2019, but State Representative Nika Elugardo’s district covers many of them, and she has endorsed Mayor Janey.
Turn out, turn out, turn out
Higher turnout does not always mean a more progressive electorate. It depends on what dynamics are driving the higher turnout. In 2013 a total of 30% of eligible registered voters casted a ballot for a total of 113,319. In 2021, 35,000 early ballot requests as of September 1st, 2021 show strong enthusiasm among regular municipal voters, and we expect strong election-day turnout to push the total ballots cast over 100,000. While enthusiasm is slightly lower than in 2013, this is offset by a gain of 70,000 registered voters since the 2013 preliminary election. The 2013 preliminary election had very high turnout compared to other recent primaries, and a quarter of all votes were cast in just three overwhelmingly white neighborhoods: Charlestown, West Roxbury, and South Boston. In a more typical year, these neighborhoods are closer to a fifth of turnout.
Progressive candidates can boost turnout in select neighborhoods and populations. In the 2018 DA primary, Allston/Brighton and sections of JP with many young voters had higher turnout as a share of the city, likely because young people were excited to vote for Ayanna Pressley in the Congressional race. Michelle Wu would benefit from high turnout here based on recent MassINC polling showing her with large margins among voters under 45.
Bottom line: Expansion electorates can boost progressives, but there is no guarantee. It depends where the expansion happens; if there is high turnout this year but it is disproportionately in whiter and more conservative neighborhoods, that could hurt progressive candidates of color rather than helping
Turnout is higher in finals than in prelims, but the prelim will likely give us a good idea of turnout dynamics in the final; in 2013, turnout jumped 26% between the prelim and the final, but each of Boston’s political regions stayed roughly the same share of the electorate. Turnout can drop in a neighborhood relative to the city as a whole when a favored candidate is eliminated in the prelim; if Annissa Essaibi George makes the final, this could boost at-large candidates like Erin Murphy and district candidates like Mary Tamer, both of whom need high turnout in more conservative white neighborhoods to win in November.